Market Insights - 260214
Market News
U.S. equity markets finished the week down, as technology shares continued to face pressure. Weakness in SaaS stocks persisted, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) now down approximately 30% from its highs reached last October, underscoring the severity of the rotation out of high-multiple software names. The MARP portfolio is “overweight” software. However, we view companies like Autodesk—whose AutoCAD and Revit platforms are foundational to the global construction industry—and Shopify, which equips small and medium-sized merchants with enterprise-grade commerce capabilities, and Axon who generates the vast majority of its revenue from government customers — primarily U.S. federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies—as unique and highly defensible platforms that serve a broad and diverse set of industries. We are attracted to these businesses because of their combination of growth, profitability, financial position, and competitively advantaged business models. That said, particularly during periods of market stress, stock performance across the software ecosystem can be highly correlated. Over the long term, we expect artificial intelligence to impact every company in the MARP portfolio—creating challenges outlined by Goldman Sachs and others. But it will also provide meaningful opportunities to expand addressable markets, create value for their customers, and potentially improve operating margins.
MARP Portfolio News
Airbnb (ABNB) reported solid Q4 2025 results on Thursday, with revenue rising 12.9% year over year to $2.78 billion, ahead of estimates, though EPS of $0.56 came in below expectations. Growth was supported by a 10% increase in nights and experiences booked and Gross Booking Value of $20.4 billion, up 16%. Adjusted EBITDA reached $786 million (28% margin), and management guided Q1 2026 revenue of $2.59–$2.63 billion, and low double-digit revenue growth and stable margins through 2026. The company generated $4.6 billion in free cash flow in 2025 and repurchased $3.8 billion of stock.
Alphabet (GOOGL) is issuing an ultra-rare 100-year bond following its recent $20 billion U.S. debt offering, marking the first century bond sale by a technology company since Motorola did so in 1997
Shopify (SHOP) traded up by as much as 14 per cent in the premarket Thursday, before turning negative throughout the day as investors focused on rising AI related investment costs. The company reported strong fourth-quarter results that beat expectations on both revenue and profitability. Management expects revenue to grow at a "low-thirties percentage rate" in the first quarter of this year. It has also authorized a share buyback program of up to US$2 billion.
Portfolio Additions
The following high quality businesses were added to the MARP Portfolio during the month of February:
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Watchlist Additions
The following high quality businesses were added to the Portfolio-Watchlist during the month of October:
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